US 10 year yields

The macro winds are blowing in every direction at the moment.

Inflation fear has been overwhelmed by recession fear but everyone seems to be scared of something. The refuges lately have been the US dollar and Treasuries.

From 3.50% just three weeks ago, US 10-year yields are down to 2.76%, including 5 basis points today. That brings 10s within striking distance of the May low of 2.706%.

Looking elsewhere, the 5y5y forward is signaling that the Fed won't have a tough time meeting its target. The Fed futures curve is also down another 5 bps today with a February top of 3.25%.