I've been using this meme for awhile and it basically explains everything that's going on in markets right now. I hate to over-interpret moves around the turn of the corner but these ones are getting too big to ignore.
The bond market is screaming that we've already seen peak inflation while stocks are increasingly worried about growth (yet not yet buoyed by lower rates).
The Fed funds market is now down to 55% for 75 bps and 45% for 50 bps. Looking further out, the terminal rate is crashing with futures peaking at 3.21%, down from 3.50%% yesterday and +4% just two weeks ago.
