AUDUSD 10 mins

The US dollar has turned around in the last 30 minutes, particularly against the pound and commodity currencies.

It's a volatile market this week and I'm hesitant to lay the blame on any one factor. The move came after solid initial jobless claims and current account data in a sign that the US economy is solid. I wouldn't have expected large-scale layoffs in the aftermath of the banking spat but some people might have.

I the bigger picture, the UK pension episode looms large. It cost Liz Truss her career but certainly didn't derail the economy and we might be seeing some repositioning in the US dollar on the idea that the Fed will indeed hold rates higher for longer. US 2-year yields fell as low as 3.87% today but are back to 3.95%. Compared that to the Fed year-end dot at 5.00-5.25% and you have a fight on your hands.