Various economic forecasts from UBS:

  • Q4 GDP growth may be lower than 3%
  • 2021 GDP growth is expected at 7.6%, but in 2022 growth is likely to slow to 5.4%
  • export growth is expected to slow to 10% this year (from around 30% in 2021)
  • CPI is likely to grow 2.4% in 2022
  • PPI expected to slow to 3% - 4% from 8% last year

UBS say that the PBOC is likely to cut its RRR further in 2022

  • the first cut expected in March or April
  • and the central bank will provide liquidity support via MLF, relending

On the Chinese yuan

  • will weaken by about 2% by the end of the year to 6.5/USD

And, ICYMI, Goldman Sachs Group has cut its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 4.3%