The FOMC prefers 3-month bills to 10-year yields as an inflation warning but 2s10s has long been the market benchmark.
US 2-year yields are down 1.6 bps to 2.826% today while 10s are down 7.5 bps to 2.828%. A short time ago, 5-year yields fell below 2 years as well.
2s10s inverted in June and April so a repeat would be nothing groundbreaking. The calls for recession are certainly growing louder though.
In terms of the Fed funds rate, the market has pared back rate hike expectations and now sees a top at 3.31% in February with 60 bps of cuts in the months afterwards. The top had been above 4% three weeks ago.
If the Fed can get to the levels of the dot plot and what's expected, then 3-month bills will almost-certainly trade above 10s. It could come as soon as September.
