nonfarm payroll chart BLS
  • Prior was +236K(revised to +165K)
  • Two-month net revision -149K
  • Unemployment rate 3.4% vs 3.6% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.5%
  • Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.6% prior
  • U6 underemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.7% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected
  • Average hourly earnings +4.4% y/y vs +4.2% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +230K vs +160K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +11K vs -5K expected
  • Household survey +139K vs +577K prior
  • Birth-death adjustment+378K vs -29K prior

This is undoubtedly hawkish and puts the Fed in a real bind. The Fed wants to pause and may soon even need to cut but the jobs market isn't cooperating. Now, jobs are certainly a lagging indicator but 3.4% unemployment is extraordinarily tight and this is the 13th straight month of non-farm payrolls beating the consensus estimate.

The US dollar is higher on the headlines, including 60 pips in USD/JPY and about 30 pips against the euro and pound, which is an indication that it's not enough to change the Fed trajectory. Meanwhile, bonds are reacting more forcefully with US 2-year yields now up 17 bps on the day, though only about half of that is since the report.