US pending home sales May 26 2022
  • Prior was -1.2%
  • Index at 99.3 vs 103.7 prior

New home sales fell far short of estimates earlier this week.

What happens next for US housing is a lively debate. If you look at homebuilder stocks, the message from the market is that house price are going to fall but I'm not so sure. The latest mortgage numbers from Freddie Mac are out and a 30-year fixed is down to 5.10% from 5.25%. I expect more downward pressure as the spread between mortgages and the 30-year narrows.

I envision a year or so of flat prices and some cooling in some hot markets but I don't see largescale price declines. Canada, on the other hand, is going to see at least a 20% decline in prices.

Currently, we're seeing declines in everything with leverage , and that includes housing.

"If mortgage rates stabilize roughly at the current level of 5.3% and job gains continue, home sales could also stabilize in the coming months," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Home sales in 2022 are expected to be down about 9%, and if mortgage rates climb to 6%, then the sales activity could fall by 15%.

"Home prices in the meantime appear in no danger of any meaningful decline," he continued. "There is an ongoing housing shortage, and properly listed homes are still selling swiftly – generally seeing a contract signed within a month."