non-farm payrolls
- Prior was +114K
Details of the August 2024 jobs report:
- Two-month net revision: -86K versus -29K prior
- Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected (prior was 4.3%)
- Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.220% vs 4.252% prior
- Participation rate: 62.7% versus 62.7% prior
- Private payrolls +118K vs +139K expected
- Prior private payrolls 97K (revised to 74K)
- U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 7.8% prior
- Average hourly earnings: +0.4% m/m versus +0.3% m/m expected
- Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.2% m/m (revised to -0.1%)
- Average hourly earnings: +3.8% y/y versus +3.7% y/y expected
- Average weekly hours: 34.3 versus 34.2 prior
- Change in manufacturing payrolls: -24K versus +1K prior
- Household survey: +168K versus +67K prior
- Government jobs: +24K versus +17K prior
- Full time: -438K versus +448K prior
- Part time: +527K versus -325K prior
Fed pricing showed a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut ahead of the release and 110 bps of easing priced in this year ahead of the release. Immediately afterwards, that's up to 57% and 119 bps. Looking out through Sept 2025, 229 bps of easing was priced in and that's up to 241 bps.
USD/JPY was trading at 143.30 just ahead of the release and has been whippy afterwards, initially rising then turning lower to 142.41.
USD/JPY 10 mins
