ICYMI from the US Energy Information Administration's ' Short-term Energy Outlook" released earlier in the week. They expect US oil production to slow for the coming year:

  • We estimate that U.S. crude oil production reached an all-time high in December of more than 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d).
  • However, crude oil production fell to 12.6 million b/d in January because of shut-ins related to cold weather.
  • We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million b/d in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025.

EIA crude forecast:

  • Brent crude oil spot price increased in January, averaging $80 per barrel (b) because of heightened uncertainty about global oil shipments as attacks to vessels in the Red Sea intensified.
  • Although we expect crude oil prices will rise into the mid-$80/b range in the coming months, we expect downward price pressures will emerge in 2Q24 as global oil inventories generally increase through the rest of our forecast.
  • However, ongoing risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East create the potential for crude oil prices to be higher than our forecast. U.S. crude oil production.
us eia oil price forecast 08 February 2024 2