- Prior was 6.50m (revised to 6.49m)
- Sales -7.2% vs +6.6% prior
- Inventories at 1.7 months
- Prices +15.0% y/y to $357.3K
- Full report
The issue in the US is inventories; they're extremely tight. I highlighted more on US housing earlier but I'll repeat it here and US home price inflation looks set to continue for an extended period:
Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage survey averaged 4.16% this week, up from 3.85% a week ago and well above the 3.09% level a year ago. Mortgage News Daily (more accurate for capturing movements later in the week) pegs rates to be 4.50% (up 22 bps W/W) after considerable weakness in bond markets. Despite facing higher monthly payments, Redfin’s latest data showed home prices saw their largest four-week jump in over five years, surging 7% M/M. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index for last week was 10% higher than a year ago (up 1.6% W/W). The real estate brokerage’s data indicates active listings were down 23% Y/Y (and 50% lower than 2020) to an all-time low, while median home sale prices over the past four weeks are up 17% Y/Y to a record $376K (36% higher than two years ago).
USD unchanged on this report.
Here's the commentary from NAR:
"Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Some who had previously qualified at a 3% mortgage rate are no longer able to buy at the 4% rate.
"Monthly payments have risen by 28% from one year ago – which interestingly is not a part of the consumer price index – and the market remains swift with multiple offers still being recorded on most properties."
"The sharp jump in mortgage rates and increasing inflation is taking a heavy toll on consumers' savings," he said. "However, I expect the pace of price appreciation to slow as demand cools and as supply improves somewhat due to more home construction."