S&P Global with this piece, in summary:
- Far from expecting China and India to join the G7 price cap alliance, the US hopes the price cap will expand the discount for Russian crudes on the global market giving Asian refiners additional leverage to negotiate down prices in supply talks with Russia.
- The G7 appears to be banking on Russia redirecting more oil flows to Asia rather than retaliating by shutting in production. With Russia's energy exports normally funding more than half of Russia's government budget, the US believes Putin will be loath to simply turning off the spigots and should opt to absorb a bigger discount for his oil.
- "The price cap is greater than marginal costs of production for Russia so there is a clear economic incentive for Russia to continue to produce oil and sell it," US Treasury's Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Elizabeth Rosenberg said.
The full article is here, it may be gated:
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