Initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims for the current week
  • Prior 209K revised to 212K.
  • Initial jobless claims 210K vs 208K estimate.
  • 4-week moving average of initial claims 211.25K vs 208.75Klast week
  • Continuing claims prior week 1.8111M revised to 1.803M.
  • Continuing claims current week 1.807M vs 1.820M estimate.
  • 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.802M vs 1.797M last week
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 9 were in Oregon (+2,216), California (+462), Indiana (+427), Texas (+392), and Nevada (+342),
  • The largest decreases were in New York (-14,583), Ohio (-1,453), New Hampshire (-446), Massachusetts (-305), and Vermont (-289).

This week corresponds with the survey week for the BLS is monthly employment data.

The jobs data is not something to worry about and the Fed knows that. The question is will it kick up inflation. Strong jobs is good if inflation does not run. That remains the big question for the Fed and the markets.

The markets are pricing in for a June cut. The Fed's current dot-plot still points to 3 in 2024.

Fed rate cut probablilities

The US stocks remain higher in premarket trading:

  • S&P up 22 points
  • Dow Industrial Average up 111 points
  • NASDAQ index of 166 points

US yields are off their lows:

  • 2-year 4.595%, -0.8 basis points
  • 5-year 4.219%, -2.3 basis points
  • 10 year 4.245%, -2.6 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.428%, -2.6 basis points