Initial claims
Initial jobless claims
  • prior week 238K revised to 239K
  • Initial jobless claims 223K versus 230K estimate
  • 4- week MA initial jobs claims 253.25K vs 255.250K last week
  • Continuing claims 1.621M versus 1.615M
  • 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.634M vs 1.618M last week
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 29 were in Pennsylvania (+2,735), Georgia (+1,551), Michigan (+1,238), Indiana (+939), and Texas (+785),
  • The largest decreases were in Ohio (-4,847), California (-2,595), Kentucky (-2,318), Utah (-1,870), and Alabama (-1,343).

    • The focus is on the higher CPI data. With the 10 year yield now up 5 basis points at 1.979%. The two year yield is up 1.452% up 10 basis points on the day.

    The expectations for a 50 basis point increase in March has moved above 50% in the initial reaction from about 30% before the release.

    US stocks of move down with the Dow now down -122 points. The NASDAQ is down -207 points

    The US dollar has moved higher with the:

    • EURUSD breaking to a new week a low below the 1.1400 level.
    • GBPUSD is just now breaking below its 200 hour moving average at 1.35323. The 100 hour moving averages It is at 1.15401. Stay below those levels is more bearish
    • USDJPY is moving to a new high going back to January 5 at 116.14