Initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims
  • Initial jobless claims 239K versus 232K estimate
  • prior week 228K. No revision to the prior week
  • 4-week moving average of initial claims 240K versus 237.75K last week. The average was the highest since November 20, 2021 when it was at 249.25K
  • Continuing claims 1.810M versus 1.814 million expected. The prior week was unchanged at 1.823M
  • 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.8135M vs 1.804M last week. This was the highest level since November 13, 2021 when it was at 2.007M
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 1 were in Indiana (+4,457), Illinois (+1,933), Massachusetts (+1,216), Oregon (+1,052), and South Carolina (+211),
  • The largest decreases were in California (-6,833), Kentucky (-3,907), Michigan (-3,281), Ohio (-2,494), and New York (-1,711)

Recall from last week, the Department of Labor adjusted the seasonals and it led to revisions to the upside. The trend in claims is also moving higher as opposed to sideways and below the 200,000 level. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims in continuing claims are at high levels going back to November 2021. That also implies a weakening of the labor market.

Over on the inflation front the PPI data came in it much weaker than expected. The combination of claims and PPI have the dollar moving to the downside. Stocks are also moving higher with the Dow industrial average of 43 points. The NASDAQ futures are employing a gain of around 50 points, and the S&P index is up around 10 points. US yields have dipped modestly to the downside with the two year yield down -0.8 basis points. The 10 year is unchanged while the thirty-year is down -0.2 basis points