Umich inflation expectations 5-10 year
  • Prior was 50.0
  • Current conditions 57.1 vs 52.5 expected (prior was 53.8)
  • Expectations 47.3 vs 47.0 expected (prior was 47.5) -- lowest since 1980
  • 1-year inflation expectations 5.2% vs 5.3% prior
  • 5-10 year inflation expectations 2.8% vs 3.1% prior

The drop in 5-10 year inflation expectations is an important shift. It shows the Fed has re-established credibility on inflation fighting. It would match the lowest since July 2021.

The implied odds of 100 bps are down to 15%. The Fed will take a lot of comfort in this report. The US dollar is sinking.