US leading index for April -0.6% vs -0.6% expected

• Prior month -1.2%

• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.6% in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a 1.2% decrease in March.

• The LEI showed a 4.4% decline over the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, a sharper fall than the 3.8% contraction from April–October 2022.

• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.3% in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after a 0.2% rise in March.

• The CEI showed a 0.7% increase over the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, which is a decrease from the 0.9% growth recorded over the prior six months.

• The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased by 0.1% in April 2023 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), after staying constant in March.

• The LAG exhibited a 0.9% increase over the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, which is a significant decline from its previous six-month growth rate of 4.0%.

  According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, the LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook. However, the weakness among the underlying components was less widespread compared to March's reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. Despite minor improvements in stock prices and manufacturers' new orders for both capital and consumer goods, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2, leading to a mild recession by mid-2023. Even as recent trends in manufacturing activity and industrial production have been weak, employment and income growth remain positive, reflecting the figures shown by the CEI.

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