NABH housing market index
  • Prior was +77
  • Current single-family home sales 78 vs 86 prior
  • Sales over the next six months 63 vs 73 prior
  • Index of prospective buyers 52 vs 61 prior

Home Depot earnings and comments from management today were very upbeat on US housing and home spending. But these numbers highlight some of the recent anecdotal talk that there has been a sharp drop in traffic. Whether that's a sign of normalization from an extremely hot housing market or a pending reversal in home prices is a lively debate. This is the worst reading since June 2020 and puts the index below Jan 2020 levels (pre-pandemic), though it's still elevated on a historical basis.

The question next is whether this index normalizes in the 60s on the strong demographic backdrop for housing or undershoots below 50 as higher interest rates bite.