Nonfarm payroll
Nonfarm payroll rises by 517 K

The January 2023 US job report shows:

  • Nonfarm payroll 517K vs 185K estimate
  • prior month 223K (was expecting 200 K last month). Rewvised to 260K
  • the nonfarm payroll for November was revised up 34K from 256K to 290K. The December was revised up 37K from 223K to 260K for a total 2 month increase of 71K adding to the stronger data.
  • Unemployment rate 3.4% vs 3.6% estimate. Prior month 3.5%
  • Average hourly earnings 0.3% vs 0.3% expected. Per month 0.3%
  • Average hourly earnings YoY 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Last month 4.6%
  • Participation rate 62.4% versus 62.3% last month
  • Average weekly hours 34.7 versus 34.3 estimate. Last month 34.3
  • Change manufacturing payrolls 19K versus 6K estimate
  • Payrolls benchmark NSA revision for 2022
  • Payroll benchmark SA 2022

A huge beat that may have some seasonality issues, but it is impressive with gains and revisions well above expectations. The average gain in 2022 was 401K

From the BLS:

Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike.

  • Leisure and hospitality rose 128K
  • manufacturing +19
  • construction +28K
  • professional and business services 82K
  • healthcare +58K
  • transportation and warehousing +23K

Key levels before the report:

The current levels immediately after the report are showing

  • Dow Industrial Average -182 points
  • S&P index -50 points
  • NASDAQ index -205 points
  • two year yield 4.205%, +10.3 basis points
  • 10 year yield 3.471% +7.3 basis points

What to do no?

The dollar is moving higher.

  • The USDJPY is trading up from 128.55 to 129.83. That is it taken the price back above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 129.45 and 129.685 respectively
  • The EURUSD has moved down from a pre-level of 1.0922 to the current level of 1.0843. That has taken the price below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.0901 and 1.0892.

15 minutes past the release, the US stocks or lower:

  • Dow Industrial Average -191 points
  • S&P index -46 point
  • NASDAQ index -224 points