US retail sales
US retail sales continue to advance
  • Prior was 0.6% revised to 0.8%


  • Retail sales MoM 0.7% versus 0.3% expected
  • Ex-autos 0.6% versus 0.2% expected.
  • Prior ex-autos 0.6% revised to 0.9%
  • Control group 0.6% versus 0.0% expected.
  • Prior control group 0.1% (revised to 0.2%)
  • Retail sales ex gas and autos 0.6% vs 0.3% prior revised from 0.2%
  • Retail Sales YoY x.xx% vs 2.47% prior.

Stronger than expected retail sales across the board including the revisions. Retail sales have now been up for 5 consecutive months. The last 5 months have shown gains of 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.8% last month, and 0.7% for this month

The consumer is about two-thirds of US GDP. This report suggests that the consumer is not pulling back in any way.

Yields are moving higher with the 10 year yield now up 8.6 basis points at 4.796%. The 2-year yield is up to 5.15% up 5.3 basis points.

Third-quarter growth is looking strong.

The Atlanta GDPNow estimate for 3Q growth is projecting 5.1% from its model. They will release a revised figure today. There estimate is generally higher than the consensus but the Atlanta Fed has been spot on over the last few quarters with their estimates.

Retail sales

The US dollar is moving higher after the report..

  • The USDJPY is approaching 150.00 at 149.73 currently.
  • The EURUSD is still above its low for the day but is trading back below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.05604. The price currently trades at 1.05388.
  • The GBPUSD is moving to a new session low at 1.2139 currently. It was trading near 1.2173 just before the release.

US stock futures are implying a lower opening with the NASDAQ index now down around 86 points. The Dow industrial average futures are implying a decline of -95 points and the S&P futures are implying a decline of -20 points