The firm says that the US economy will contract by 0.5% in Q4 next year, possibly dragging into 2024, in what it describes as a "mild recession". The slowdown will come as a result of the Fed's fight against inflation, in which they see the central bank hiking rates by another 100 bps through to March 2023. They expect a 50 bps move in December, followed by 25 bps each in February and March next year.

Meanwhile, the firm sees US consumer price inflation easing to 4.1% by the end of next year and that the Fed could start easing rates by 50 bps per quarter starting from Q2 2024.