Bank of America Global Research maintains a bullish bias on the USD through the second half of the year.
"As the USD has rallied to our out-of-consensus bullish forecasts, we expect it to remain strong. Four drivers have supported the USD this year and we still see them in force.
1-The Fed is among the most hawkish central banks in G10, as it is dealing with high inflation in an overheating economy, while the rest are mostly trying to address second-round effects from negative shocks. 2- The US is energy independent and its terms of trade have not deteriorated as a result of high energy prices, particularly compared with the Eurozone and Japan," BofA notes.
"3- The equities sell-off, to a large extent because of Fed policy tightening, has supported the USD, even against JPY as we are still seeing outflows from Japan to take advantage of carry. 4- China's weak economy, as the country sticks to its zero-COVID policy, and CNY weakness have supported the USD, particularly against EUR, as the US is less dependent on China for its exports," BofA adds.
For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.
