Today we will have another empty European session in terms of data releases. In the American session, we get lots of US data releases as Thursday's data was moved up to today due to the US holidays.
Most of the data will be ignored by the market and the focus will be on the US Core PCE and Jobless Claims. The second estimate of the US Q3 GDP is old news since the market is forward-looking, and the US Durable Goods Orders are too volatile to get any kind of signal from them.
As a reminder, the market is still pricing roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed and that's after all the strong data we got up to now. The market is clearly fine with the current pricing and we will likely need more bad news on the inflation front to see the market pricing out some more of those rate cuts.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US October PCE
The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs. 2.1% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior.
Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market already knows what to expect. Therefore, unless we see a deviation from the expected numbers, it shouldn’t affect the current market’s pricing.
13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims remain around the cycle highs.
This week Initial Claims are expected at 216K vs. 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1908K vs. 1908K prior.
