I think there's a strong chance the weekly private oil inventory data is leaking ahead of the release. We've seen several weeks of big moves in oil ahead of the report, only for oil to hold relatively stable -- if not reversing -- when the extraordinarily bearish data is released.
Today it's something of the opposite with oil looking like it was breaking down, only to reverse in North American trade and settle 91-cents higher to $78.83.
Now some of that can be explained by a broader turn in the market and the US dollar after benign US wage growth data but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big draw in the data, which is out 30 minutes after the US equity close.
If the data is bullish, I would be very wary of chasing it. In any case, oil is going to be in a tough spot in the next 24 hours with EIA data to follow the private numbers and then the FOMC decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday.
