August market seasonals: A moment for the risk averse
Stocks lower, bonds higher
The berries come out in August and that makes for a feast for the bears. August is the weakest month for the S&P 500 over the past decade. The average decline is -0.78% and four of the past 10 years have included declines of more than 3%.
Bonds tell the same story. It's the best month for 10-year note futures and they've risen in 8 of the past 10 years. The chart here is the 10-year yield, which moves inverse to prices. It briefly broke the April low earlier today and that may set it on a path for a retest of the March low.
Outside of the US, it's also (by far) the weakest month for the Nikkei 225 and the second-weakest month for the FTSE 100.