August market seasonals: Cable loses its luster
It's been a good run
No one loves cable. At times people like it but it's generally a mixture of indifference and hatred. Lately though, the bulls are starting to warm up.
That might be a mistake.
The seasonal trend in August is negative. GBP/USD has fallen in 8 of the past 10 years in August. It's also the strongest month of the year for EUR/GBP if you want to stay away from the dollar.
If cable can finish the month stronger, or some gains carry into August, then there's the 1.3200 level to manage risk. Knowing FX though, it will pop through only to reverse lower. Either way, the latest run has put a bit of emotion into the cable trade and that should keep volatility elevated.