February seasonals: Crude already off to a great start
Oil starts February strong
The worst time of the year is over for oil.
WTI crude has one of the strongest seasonal patterns of anything. There's a period of weakness late in the year that turns into strength in February.
The buying came early this year on account of the sharp drop to $42 in December but oil is still a long way from from where it was in October ($76.90).
The good news is that the seasonal tailwind stretches from Feb through April in a fairly consistent pattern.
Technically, WTI is brushing against the important 38.2% retracement of the Oct-Dec drop. If it can get through there isn't much in the way until the 50% level and the 100-day moving average, both near $60.