June forex seasonals: More trouble ahead on a few fronts
Forex seasonal trends for June
The seasonals for June make a pair of currency charts even more interesting. First, June is the worst month on the calendar over the past decade against the Swiss franc. It's fallen in 10 of the past 12 years and the average over the past decade is -1.37%.
What's especially interesting as we enter June is that the pair is flirting with the May low and parity. It would also be a main beneficiary of the breakdown in US Treasury yields, a flight to safety and signals about the Fed cutting interest rates.
Naturally, it all hinges on what happens next with the trade war but there are a handful of things lining up in favor of selling USD/CHF.
Similarly, June is the third-worst month on the calendar for USD/JPY, averaging a 0.80% decline over the past 10 years. It's also followed by July, which is the worst month.
Just today, USD/JPY broke below the late-January low and is now in danger of falling back to the flash-crash lows near 105.00.
Taking it even further, June is the second-best month on the calendar for the euro. Last year as the trade war escalated, it outperformed. The average gain in June over the past decade is 0.5%.
Some other notes:
- Gold is finishing May strong but there isn't a strong seasonal pattern in June
- Those who are more optimistic about the outlook may want to wade into AUD and NZD. June and July are good months for both
- There is a long-term trend of weakness on the S&P 500 in June but that hasn't been true lately with slight rallies in each of the past three years
- Two stock markets that have poor records in June are the FTSE 100 and Canadian TSX. It's the worst month for both over the past decade.