USD/CAD makes a fresh low

A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices has lit a fire under the loonie. It's the second-best performer after the kiwi today, in percentage terms.

The past three days of trading have been inside of Friday's range, which suggests consolidation after a 10-day winning streak. But if 1.3644 breaks to the downside and especially if we get a close below, that would point to a better possibility of a retracement.

If that's the case, look to the Fibonacci levels of the April 17 to May 5 climb. The 38.2% level is particularly intriguing because it synchs up with the big figure and the old highs from November/December.