April seasonals: March was a rough month for stock markets

Technical Analysis

Author: Adam Button | seasonals

...but April might be better

This year started out with so much promise in the stock market. It was euphoric in early January with a rip to start the year but on January 26 the S&P 500 hit a peak of 2872 and it's been a rough ride since.

In March, the S&P 500 fell 2.2% in the second consecutive month of declines. The good news is that the market climbed in the final day of March and that April seasonals are much better.

It's pretty-much the same story in equity markets around the globe.

  • April is the best month for the FTSE 100, up an average of 2.4% over the past decade
  • The Hang Seng averages a whopping 4.9% gain with few negative years this millennium
  • It's the second best month for the Nikkei, averaging +2.45% for the past decade
  • It's the second best month for the S&P 500 for the past decade (although March is the best, or at least it was until this year)
  • Canadian stocks (and the Canadian dollar) tend to do well

So pretty much anywhere you look, there is a seasonal tailwind. With the 200-day moving average as nearby support for the S&P 500, buying is worth a shot, right?

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