The pair is sitting in a near-term wedge at the moment
If you measure back to last week, price action has been sitting in only a 200 pips range between 71.00 and 73.00 for the most part. That comes despite the spike we saw in the yen at the start of European trading yesterday.
Of note, the movement this week is starting to build into a narrowing wedge for price action centering around the key hourly moving averages.
As such, a near-term breakout should follow soon and I reckon the next key trade will be to go with any solid break as such. That said, any breakout will be more convincing if it is accompanied by fundamentals to back it up.
For now, the risk mood remains the key factor influencing markets so I'd look towards that to provide traders with any added conviction in search for a solid breakout.
Otherwise, we may just end up being stuck back in range again between the lows around 71.00 (and possibly nearer to the January flash crash low) and the highs closer to the 38.2 retracement level and 73.00 until markets can figure out a firm direction.
