Price has remained below the falling MA since November 2
The AUDUSD fell to the lowest level since November 2020 during yesterday's trade, and in the process came close to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low. That level comes in at 0.70525 (see daily chart below). The low price from yesterday reached 0.7062. Buyers leaned against the retracement level, and pushed the price higher into the close and into today's trading as well.
Having said that, drilling to the hourly chart the move to the upside was able to extend above its 100 hour moving average (blue line) at 0.71414 both yesterday and today. However the high price has stalled near the 0.7170 level both yesterday and today (see red numbered circles). The price has also stalled ahead of the 200 hour moving average at 0.71816 (falling green line on the chart below).
The inability to extend higher - and especially above the 200 hour moving average - has sent the price lower over the last few hours, and in the process, has now moved back below the 100 hour moving average. In the process the bias has tilted more to the downside
If the buyers are to take back more control, they now need to get back above the 100 hour moving average. Failure to do that, and a move back toward the lows from last week at 0.71057, and the lows from yesterday at 0.70919 and 0.7062 respectively (and the 38.2% retracement off the daily chart at 0.7052), would become the next downside targets (and the path of least resistance).
Get back above the 100 hour moving average, and the focus returns back to the falling 200 hour moving average. That moving average remains a key target to get to and through if the buyers are to take more control.
From the swing high going back to October 28, the price in the AUDUSD has declined nearly 500 pips, and over most of that period, remained below the 200 hour moving average line. In fact, the price has traded around 516 straight hourly bars (since the November 2) below that moving average line.
That's a long, long time. The buyers are not winning. The sellers remain in firm control.
