AUDUSD consolidates lower. No bump from stocks today (but still some time for a late day squeeze higher)

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | forex

Move higher this week slows.

The AUDUSD bottom on Monday just ahead of the low from Friday at 0.64016. The high price reached 0.66151 on Wednesday as stocks helped the overall tone. Today, the pair has been up and down but more down as the stock markets have not been all that cooperative.  Gold and metals are also lower which does not help the currency in general (gold down -$25 or -1.47%).  

Move higher this week slows.

Technically, the pair this week moved above the 100 day MA on Tuesday and after some consolidation around the level on Tuesday (see hourly chart above), moved higher, retested the MA on Wednesday, before pushing to the Thursday high.  That was a positive/bullish move.

The pair extended above a swing area at 0.6560-69, but there has been some waffle above and below that area today.  The last 4 hours have stayed below the high of that swing area at 0.6569, but the price is not exactly racing lower either (see yellow area). 

The price is consolidating between trend lines on the hourly chart now in limbo. At some point, the "market" will shove it back higher or lower.  Flip a coin.  

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, not only did the price move above the 100 day MA but it also moved above and away from the 61.8% retracement at 0.64498. Bullish.  The 200 day MA above (green line at 0.66578 is right around a swing area at 0.6662 to 0.6684. That swing area was a nice, strong floor until it became a ceiling on the break below on  February 20. There was a swing high test in March but it has not been close since that test.  

It seems a test would be in order at some point, but it will need the the buyers showing they want to make that run. Those clues will come from the hourly chart.  

The AUDUSD on the hourly chart.
So overall the nod is to the longs/buys but the game plan from the hourly (with the 100 day MA the last bastion of bullishness on a greater dip) needs to play out. The technicals on that chart are above some support, but it still needs that shove.  With an hour and a half to the stock close, maybe there is another one of those short squeezes left in the pair.   

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