AUD/USD holds weaker after softer Q3 GDP data, what levels to look out for?

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | audusd

AUD/USD stays a little pressured as Australian growth figures disappoint

AUD/USD H1 04-12
Price is retracing some of the move higher from last week after the Australian Q3 GDP report earlier reaffirmed struggles in the economy despite the RBA trying to put a positive spin on things in their recent commentary.

That is seeing AUD/USD linger near session lows now with price leaning on the 38.2 retracement level @ 0.6821 for some support for the time being.

Looking ahead, it'll be a constant battle of narratives between what economic data is actually saying (and how markets perceive that) and what story the RBA is trying to tell markets about the health of the Australian economy.

Sad to say, I have to lean on the former and at this stage, I feel that central banks worry more about public relations and managing fear rather than do their job right to tell things as they are - as we can see from the RBA statement yesterday.

As such, I reckon the aussie will find it tough to pull off any meaningful rallies until we see significant improvement in economic data over the next few months. Add to the fact that there is trade uncertainty still present, that will limit gains in the short-term too.

As for AUD/USD, just be wary of support around the 100-day moving average @ 0.6816 today. That will be a key one to watch in the battle between buyers and sellers.

There is also some minor support at 0.6815 to look out for with further near-term support then seen closer towards 0.6790-00 in the form of the key hourly moving averages.

A break below those near-term levels will put further pressure on the pair in chasing the downside, especially if AUD/NZD can keep below 1.0500 still.

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