AUD/USD moves up to test its 100-hour moving average

AUD/USD H1 09-03

The pair is currently running into a confluence of near-term support levels as the dollar keeps weaker in European morning trade amid the retreat in Treasury yields.

Of note, the pair is testing resistance from its 100-hour moving average (red line) @ 0.7715, trendline resistance @ 0.7704 and the 23.6 retracement level @ 0.7713.

Keep above those levels (in particular the former) and buyers will be able to at least wrestle back some near-term control with further resistance seen closer to 0.7755 from the 200-hour moving average (blue line).

Looking further out this week, there are a couple of large expiries rolling off in the next few days around 0.7750 to 0.7800 and that might keep gains in-check.

But as things stand, bond yields are the key driver of the market and that remains the most important development to pay attention to.

10-year Treasury yields are down by 7 bps to 1.521% and that is keeping the dollar offered so far on the session. It might seem that the bond rout is abating but just be mindful that things can quickly turn on its head as it can keep this directional push going.