AUD/USD down to 0.7355, its lowest since 13 October

AUD/USD D1 10-11

Things are certainly getting interesting for the pair, at least from a technical perspective, as the aussie continues to fail to gather much support following the RBA last week.

The rejection at the 200-day moving average (blue line) coupled with a more dovish message by the central bank has seen AUD/USD retrace lower despite the dollar keeping more mixed at times amid a retreat in Treasury yields over the past few weeks.

Of note, buyers were keeping a defense around the 100-day moving average (red line) but that is now giving way alongside the 50.0 retracement level of the October swing move higher, seen at 0.7373 and 0.7363 respectively.

Those will be key levels to watch going into the daily close in order to gauge if sellers can establish a more bearish momentum and open up the next leg lower.

As things stand, the RBA is unlikely to veer away from its latest communique going into next year. That suggests that if we are to get any form of policy divergence, it would favour the dollar and that is a big factor in limiting any upside - perhaps even driving downside pressure - in AUD/USD in the months ahead.

Besides that, the overall risk mood also matters quite a bit and even with the rally in US equities over the past week or so, it hasn't really led to much upside in the aussie.

That's an ominous sign with stocks now looking to take a bit of a breather after the stellar run of gains seen in US major indices as of late.