A close below the 100 day MA would be the first since April 13
The AUDUSD has run lower as traders exited with momentum on a move back below the 100 day MA at 0.77027. The price also moved below the 50% of the move up from the April 13 low at 0.77004 AND below an up and down trading range that kept the pair mostly between 0.7699 and 0.78174 (triple top at the high).
The price fall has taken the price to the 61.8% of the move up from the April 13 low at 0.76727. Also near the level is the swing high from April 7 at 0.7676. The low just reached 0.76745.
On further selling, an old swing ceiling going back to the end of March and the first half of April comes in at 0.76599 to 0.76633. A move below that level would be would put the pair back into an up and down are with most of the action between 0.7577 and 0.7663.
Taking a broader look at the price action going back to March 24 on the hourly chart, the AUDUSD traded in an up and down trading range mostly between 0.7577 to 0.7663 until April 14. On that same day, the price started an upper range that kept the pair between 0.7699 to 0.78174. Between those two areas at 0.7663 to 0.7699 is where the price is currently trading. The pair has not traded between those levels for long since March 24.
What now? One idea is the pair can spend more time filling in the price trading void. As a result, I would look for support against the lower box with stops below. A move back above the 100 day MA (0.7700) level would be needed to put the buyers back in play.
