Finds some buyers on the first test
The AUDUSD has moved to a new session low as London/European traders look to exit. In the process, the price has moved to test the rising 100 hour MA at 06893. A move below would be more bearish with the 38.2% retracement at 0.6883 (of the move up from the October 25 low). That is also near the swing high from October 22.
Holding the level, may be enough to entice sellers to buy once again.
Risk is defined and limited at the MA level. Traders are leaning on the first test. We will see if they can keep control by pushing the price higher and away from that MA level.
NOTE: The RBA will announce their decision on rates at 10:30 PM ET with the expectations for now change (94% chance of no change). The December meeting has a 23% chance of a cut. The market will react to the nuances of the statement. The RBA cut rates in October to 0.75% from 1.0%. The RBA has cut 0.75% this year (in June, July and October).
Since the last meeting:
- Unemployment fell to 5.2% from 5.3% in August.
- Inflation in 3Q ticked higher to 1.7% from 1.6%. That is closer to the 2-3% target but is still below the level.
