The first test holds
The AUDUSD has trended lower today. The fall was started yesterday after the pair stalled at the 100 day MA at 0.65577 currently.
Today, the price fell below its 100 hour moving average at 0.6498 currently, and more selling ensued. The price just fell to a low price of 0.64257. That was just ahead of the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.64228. The 1st test has found buyers.
Drilling to the 5 minutes chart below, the price is currently trading above its 100 bar moving average and looks toward the 200 bar moving average at 0.64582. If the price can extend above that level we could see a further rotation toward the 38.2% retracement of the last trend move to the downside. That level comes in at 0.64784.
If the price cannnot keep above the 100 bar MA, the trend IS still to the downside (with key support at the 200 hour MA), so traders should be careful.