Employment change expected to be 10K vs 28.9K last week.
The Australian employment data for the month of January will be released at 7:30 PM ET/0030 GMT. The estimate is for a job gain of 10K versus 28.9K last month. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.2% from 5.1%. The participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.0%.
Going into the data, the AUDUSD is not far from the 2020 low. The low for the year reached 0.66618 on February 7. That took out the 2019 low price of 0.66714, but only by 10 pips. A move below the 2020 low will have the pair trading at the lowest level since 2009. That's a long time ago.
Break below the 2020 low - and stay below the 0.66618 level - and traders will have open road ahead. To give an idea, the 2009 lows moved down to 0.6247. The 2008 low reached down to 0.6005 (from October 26th). Those levels are a ways away from 0.66618, but the sellers would have room to roam.
On a move higher (or failed break and move back higher), the swing lows from 2019 ranged from:
- 0.66714 on October 1 to
- 0.66768 on August 7 to
- 0.6687/88 on September 3 and August 26 respectively
We currently trade at 0.6677 around those level.
It won't take much to get the price above those levels admittedly. However, like getting through the lows, on a run higher from stronger data, traders should use that area as support (risk).
Drilling to the hourly chart below, on more upside, targets above the swing lows from the daily at 0.6688 would target the:
- 100 hour moving average at 0.6704
- The 200 hour moving average at 0.6707.
- The 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 0.67169. The price has not been above that level since January 16.
A move above that level would have traders thinking the technicals are pointing to a greater "correction higher" with 0.6744-497 and the 38.2% of the move down from the January 16 high at 0.67656 as topside targets.
