Bank of Canada expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | bank-of-canada

Rate decision due at 10 AM ET/1500 GMT on Wednesday

The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged when they announce the decision at 10 AM ET/1500 GMT on Wednesday.  According to Bloomberg 27 out of 27 economists are in agreement on no changeat 1.75%.  The rate has been unchanged since October 2018.

Although it is unanimous for no cut in December, the expectations for a rate cut in early 2020 is still up in the air.  For the January meeting, 26.2% see a cut at that meeting.  

Gov. Poloz has said that he believes monetary conditions were about right given current conditions.  However, global risks - including US China trade tensions - remain which could tilt the bias to a cut.

Also of interest this week will be Canada employment report which will be released on Friday at 8:30 AM/1330 GMT. The estimate for employment change is for a rise of 10K versus a eaker than expected -1.8K in October.

Rate decision due at 10 AM ET/1500 GMT on Wednesday_ 
Technically, the USDCAD has been mired in a narrow 74 pip trading range over the last 10 trading days.  The high reached 1.3327 back on November 20, and the low was 1.32536 back on November 22.  Since November 25, the range has been an even narrower 58 pips (7 trading days)

With such a narrow trading range, traders need to be aware of a break and run.

Should the loonie weaken (USDCAD move higher), the recent highs at 1.3313. 1.3318 1.3324 at 1.3327 will be targets to get to and through.  Should the level be broken, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the June high comes in at 1.33545. Above that is the September high at 1.33821. That September high is the highest level in over 5 months of trading.  

On the downside (more hawkish comments), the pairs 100 and 200 hour moving averages are near each other at 1.3290.  They move below that would look toward the 200 day moving average at 1.32778 and the Monday low at 1.32698. Extending below that level would target the November 27 low at 1.3259 and the November 22 low at 1.32536.    Getting outside of the range will have traders looking toward its 100 day moving average at 1.3222 as the next key target

Those are obvious levels to get to and through and hopefully encourage a run in the direction of the break.

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