Cable caught in a near-term battle to start the session

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | gbpusd

GBP/USD trades to a low of 1.3840, closes in on 200-hour moving average

GBP/USD H1 18-02
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With the dollar keeping firmer in the past few sessions, that has called into question the recent momentum in cable in chasing a move towards 1.4000.

The break back below the 100-hour moving average (red line) yesterday was a dent in the upside bias but now we're getting to a more serious test of buyers' resolve as we look towards European morning trade today.

The low yesterday hit 1.3830 before bouncing back up to 1.3877. That came after a bounce from the 200-hour moving average (blue line) while the topside was limited by the 100-hour moving average at the time.

The former now sits @ 1.3839 and remains a key level to watch as sellers try to seize near-term control as the battle ensues between the key hourly moving averages.

Essentially, cable is caught in a tug of war between buyers and sellers in search of near-term control at the moment. Break above the 100-hour moving average and buyers have a more firm bias to chase a move back above 1.3900.

However, break below the 200-hour moving average and sellers could gain momentum to chase a further retracement towards 1.3800 and the 12 February lows @ 1.3776-78.

A lot still depends on dollar sentiment, which is seemingly not revealing too much today as the reflation trade encounters a pause.

As such, the bond market will continue to be a key spot to watch in case it starts to trigger more indirect moves across other assets ahead of the weekend.

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