Despite stocks higher and yields up on the day, the USDCHF is lower

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdchf

A bit outta whack today

The Nasdaq and S&P remain at the highs an up 0.90% and 0.56%. US yields area higher too with the 10 year up 2.2 bps, but the CHF is stronger (the USDCHF lower).  

Typically, such moves would weaken the CHF/ strengthen the dollar but not today. The USD overall is mixed with gains vs the GBP and JPY, but declines vs the EUR, AUD and CHF (it is near unchanged vs the CAD and NZD). So just because stocks are up and so are yields, does not necessarly mean the USD (or USDCHF specifically must go up.  Having said that, the USDJPY is trading higher and near highs. 
 
A bit outta whack today

Anyway, technically, the picture shifted to a more bearish view from the intermediate term perspective. 

Looking at the hourly chart above, the price moved sideways in the Asian and early European session, but then broke below the 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.9724)) and the sellers started to take more control.  In the NY session, the price fell below the next target (the 200 hour MA) and that increased the selling momentum (at 0.9711). That 200 hour MA is now a close risk level for shorts. Stay below is more bearish.  

THe low for the day reached 0.96934. That was just above a swing low from January 8th at 0.96911.  

The price now trades between the 200 hour MA above at 0.97119 and the next target at 0.96911 (currently trade at 0.9703).  It take a move above or below those levels to likely lead to more directional trading in the break direction.   If I were to give the bias advantage, it would be to the sellers (below the 200 hour MA  after falling below the 100 hour MA).  

On the downside, the 0.9691 and then a lower trend line at 0.9680 would be targets.  If the 200 hour MA is busted again to the upside, the 100 hour MA at 0.97241 would be the next upside hurdle.  

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