Dollar slightly firmer as we get into European morning trade

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | usd

Dollar gains alongside the yen as risk is tilted to being more defensive

The greenback is advancing across the board as we see EUR/USD fall to a session low of 1.1759 and GBP/USD sent back below 1.3200 to a low of 1.3183.

The move comes alongside some modest strength in the yen as well with the market seeing more cautious/defensive risk tones to start European morning trade.

US futures are seen lower, with S&P 500 futures down 0.7% while 10-year Treasury yields are also pinned lower, down by 4 bps to 0.935%.

Of note, this is pushing EUR/USD back below its 200-hour moving average as sellers are looking to try and seize back near-term control in the pair:

EUR/USD H1 12-11
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The push lower yesterday failed as sellers ran into some minor support from the swing region around 1.1746-50 but they appear to be looking for another attempt to switch the near-term bias to being more bearish once again today.

Elsewhere, GBP/USD is also threatening a break below its 100-hour moving average:

GBP/USD H1 12-11
That will see buyers relinquish near-term control with the shove below 1.3200 turning the near-term bias to being more neutral instead.

For the pound, Brexit risks will remain a key factor to be mindful about in the week ahead as negotiations are still ongoing with the "deadline" now having been shifted to late next week from supposedly the end of this week.

As for the risk/dollar backdrop in general, the market reverted back to what it was familiar with in quiet trading yesterday. However, as we get back into the thick of the action this week, there is a sense of contemplation after the Monday move on the vaccine news.

With much of the euphoria and optimism out of the way, are we set for a deeper correction? Or is this just a slight pause in direction until there is more clues?

Either way, you can definitely sense the hesitancy now across the different asset classes and that at least is a firmer signal of how the risk momentum is playing out for now.

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