WIth the FOMC ahead, the flows are dominating

My morning view of the forex market is that traders a chopping each other up, and the forex flows are dominating the price action.

  • GBPUSD: The GBPUSD was mired in a 32 pips trading range coming into the New York session, and broke to the downside (and below a floor at 1.38616. Sellers came in and in the process increased the range to 50 pips (the averages near 93 pips over the last month). However, the price has since snapped back higher and trades back above and earlier floor at 1.38616.
  • EURUSD: The EURUSD had the converge 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.1790 as a bias barometer. The first test found buyers. The price then broke below but after trading to a low at 1.17827, the price snapped back higher and is testing a swing area near 1.18019 and 1.18043.
  • USDCHF: The USDCHF move above its 100 day moving average which is nothing new in July. Nevertheless it was a shift in the favor of the bulls. The price just cracked back below the level at 0.91547 and trades at 0.9141. The lows for the week between 0.91287 and 0.9132 become targets again.
  • USDCAD. The sellers had their shot in the USDCAD below the 100 hour moving average in the London morning session. The failure to increase selling momentum led to a modest rise in the New York session, but buyers could not push above the 1.2606 level where the 200 day moving average and high for the week is found. The prices move back down to retest the 100 hour moving average at 1.25689.

Chop. Chop. Chop. It is more of a bar room brawl, where buyers and sellers are flailing away. Sometimes price action is good. Sometimes it is not so good. From what I see so far, it is a not so good day. The levels can still give clues. The problem is there is not a rudder to steer the ship, right now.