Swing area in play below as well
Usually when stocks race higher, there is a corresponding run higher in the JPY crosses. The "party line" is traders are exiting the 'relative safety' of the JPY, and/or a flight into the risk of the EUR. Neither is happening today. The EURUSD is lower. The USDJPY is lower. The EURJPY is lower too.
The technicals have been more negative though, tilting the bias to the downside at least for most of the day.
In the Asian session, the price fell below an upward sloping trend line at 124.82 and then stayed below a downward sloping trend line.
The 100 hour MA (blue line) initially provided support in the early European session, only to be broken a few hours later. The break led to a rotation down toward its 200 hour moving average (green line). That moving average currently comes in at 124.265. The low price for the day stalled ahead of that at 124.281.
The current price is back up at 124.416 currently. Close resistance comes in against the low from Friday's trade at 124.507. The downward sloping trendline is just above that level at 124.558 while the 100 hour moving average is at 124.591. For sellers/bears, staying below those levels keeps a bearish tilt, but weakens the picture as each level is broken.
With the 200 hour moving average holding, there is a bit of a battle starting to brew between the aforementioned resistance levels above (could be all the way up to the 100 hour moving average at 124.591) and the 200 hour moving average below. If the 200 hour MA can be broken (followed by the swing area between 124.19-25, the sellers would assume even more control (and give them more confidence too).
