EURUSD above the 100 hour MA but holds below the 50% midpoint of the range since June 10

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

The midpoint comes in at 1.12941.

If you look at the daily chart of the EURUSD, the pair has been mired in an up and down range with the high at 1.1421 and the low at 1.11673.  The recent high range (since June 16) comes in between 1.1344 to 1.13527.  The July low has come in at 1.11837.  What is evident from the chart is the ups and downs since early June.  Traders are unsure of the next move.

The midpoint comes in at 1.12941.

Techically, the topside downward sloping trend line comes in at 1.1334 (and moving lower). The lower trend line cuts across at 1.1196 (and moving higher).

Drilling to the hourly chart, the midpoint of the range since the June 10 high comes in at 1.12941. That has been near the high for the day at 1.12948. We currently trade at 1.12784.

On the downside the price has moved below its 100 hour moving average and also upward sloping trendline. However momentum has stalled ahead of the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.12544. The low for the day reach 1.12614. 

If the price is to stay on the lower half of the range, getting below the 100 hour moving average at 1.12725 and trendline near that level and staying below would be the 1st hurdle for the sellers. The 2nd would be to crack below the 200 hour moving average once again at 1.12544 (and stay below). Dip buyers will want to see that hundred hour moving average/trendline to hold support and to extend to the upper half of the range since June 10.

EURUSD on the hourly chart
Buyers and sellers are battling and neither is able to take control for long. That dynamic has traders looking for those intraday opportunities to take advantage of the swings and the uncertainty of the next move (for now at least.   Keep an eye out for a break and run, but it is ok to lean against extremes too. 

PS. The EURUSD range today is only 33 pips (also indicative of uncertainty).  Although the range is small and uncertainty is limited, there is room to break and roam. The average trading range over the last month of trading is 87 pips.   Be aware for that break and run at some point today.
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