EUR/USD back in no man's land as dollar holds steady since overnight trading

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD is trapped near key technical levels again

EUR/USD D1 22-03
Price falls back to trade near the 100-day MA (red line) @ 1.1367 with the trendline channel hovering just below that as the euro struggles to capitalise on the dollar's weakness following the FOMC meeting decision on Wednesday.

The move higher stalled as price was unable to find a firm break above the 1.1410-20 region once again and we're seeing a reversion back towards an area where price bias is more or less undefined.

Despite buyers still keeping price above the 100-hour MA @ 1.1364 - meaning that the near-term bias is still more bullish - it's hard to imagine the euro rallying in a sustained manner considering that fundamentally there isn't much going for it at the moment.

We'll have more clues on any potential economic recovery from PMI data later today but that isn't going to offer a massive boost for the single currency with the ECB already stating that they won't raise rates this year.

Any positive rebound in the releases will be treated in a "good but not great" manner and I wouldn't expect that to significantly alter market's pricing of the ECB's rate hike expectations. If anything, I reckon only if the data holds up until 2H 2019 will we see things start to turn the corner for the euro.

With large expiries hovering at the 1.1400 handle, that will surely remain the cap for EUR/USD until they roll off later today. Meanwhile, downside support is seen around 1.1350 and then at 1.1334 where the 200-hour MA lies. Hence, it looks like price action may be stuck around this region for a while longer.

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