EUR/USD bounce this week runs into key technical test

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD runs into a test of its 200-day moving average

EUR/USD D1 07-04
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EUR/USD has a solid run higher in the past week, bouncing off lows near 1.1700 with the push higher this week in particular seeing buyers take over near-term control and breaking back above 1.1800 to its highest level in two weeks.

The dollar's recent slump adds to the upside in the pair but the euro itself was a strong performer in trading yesterday as EUR/GBP came up for air in its best daily showing so far this year - climbing back above 0.8500 and now above 0.8600.

Going back to EUR/USD though, buyers will have to prove their mettle now as price is testing the 200-day moving average (blue line) @ 1.1879.

Keep below that and sellers will have some poise to renew a downside push but break above, and buyers will be able to extend the recent upside momentum further.

Looking at the euro, a lot of pessimism has been largely accounted for or priced in so there might be some propensity to surprise to the upside - especially if the region itself can stick to the supposed vaccine timeline as reported here yesterday.

However, relying on EU politicians to do the work may be a tough ask and we are already seeing signs of that today with the Moderna vaccine delivery here.

That said, the dollar itself may see a further pullback if the move higher in Treasury yields faces a further stall at the moment. The ceiling around 1.75% is capping the surge higher in yields and that in turn could see the dollar lose some ground across the board.

It is crunch time for EUR/USD and the 200-day moving average will be a key tell as to which side will take the advantage going into the next straight.

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