EUR/USD got a boost from the ECB and Draghi overnight but it wasn't enough to secure a break above the 100-day moving average
The near-term bias continues to favour buyers as price holds above both key hourly moving averages but daily resistance from the 100-day MA (today @ 1.1274) and offers lurking around 1.1300 is helping to limit gains as seen in overnight trading.
With the euro side of the equation out of the way now, the focus will turn towards the dollar side of the equation today. Of note, the two key risk events are the US jobs report at 1230 GMT and US-Mexico trade talks that will take place later in the day.
I reckon the former will offer little surprise but just be wary that markets are looking to sniff out any clues to build on the narrative of potential Fed rate cuts. Hence, the headline print may see more scrutiny this time around. But I reckon anything in the region of 140k to 180k will do little to harm the dollar.
As for EUR/USD itself, the key levels to watch out for today in the event of an upside move are the 100-day MA (red line) @ 1.1274, offers at 1.1300, and swing region resistance from the May highs at around 1.1324.
In particular, the 100-day MA is the key level to watch as buyers need to hold a break above that to shake off the overall bearish bias in the pair.
Meanwhile, towards the downside, the 100-hour MA @ 1.1246 will be a key near-term level to watch before further support is seen around 1.1220 and then bids and the 200-hour MA @ 1.1200. Those will be areas where buyers can lean on should price move lower.
Looking at option expiries, there are notable ones at 1.1200, 1.1250-60, 1.1275, 1.1300, and 1.1315-25 so those will add additional layers on top of the key levels pointed out above before they roll off at 1400 GMT.
