EUR/USD buyers keep near-term control; Lagarde and PMI data in focus

Technical Analysis

Author: Justin Low | eurusd

EUR/USD inches higher but near-term bullish bias still kept in-check for now

EUR/USD H1 21-11
Buyers defended the 100-hour MA (red line) in trading yesterday to maintain the near-term bullish bias in the pair but price action continues to struggle in trying to break above resistance around 1.1090-00 for the time being.

Notably, the 100-day moving average rests at 1.1089 and will be a key level to watch in the session ahead and also as the focus turns towards ECB president Lagarde's first policy speech tomorrow - alongside euro area PMI data.

The risk for buyers is if price inches back lower towards a test of the 100-hour MA again with further support then seen at the 200-hour MA @ 1.1042.

Meanwhile, any upside move requires buyers to attempt a break above the 100-day moving average noted above as well as keep a firm move above the 1.1100 handle.

Looking ahead, I wouldn't expect Lagarde to offer much in her first speech and she is likely to stick to the current narrative i.e. maintaining an accommodative policy stance while calling for fiscal action by governments.

The PMI releases tomorrow will be the more interesting one as expectation is for a slight rebound in the figures for the month of November. That may yet be what the euro needs to gather some momentum to try and hold a break above 1.1100.

In the meantime, be wary of trade headlines that could keep things a little more messy.

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